The Scorecard
Every forecast we publish goes here with the probability we gave it, when it resolves, and what would prove us wrong. Updated when a call resolves and reviewed annually. Almost no publication does this. That's why we do.
- 1 forecasts
- 1 open
- 0 hit
- 0 missed
- 0 revised
| Made | Forecast | Probability | Resolves | Falsifier | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Nassau County has 240 nursing home beds. By 2040 it will have 14,454 residents over 80. | >95% | 2040 — interim check 2030 (cohort 9,246). Secondary call: ~85% that certified SNF beds remain under 400 in 2040. | A certified skilled-nursing facility of 150+ beds licensed in Nassau County before 2032, or a BEBR revision cutting the 2040 80+ projection below 10,000. | Open |